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TT Business Intelligence Report Vol. 1, No. 31, 4 October 2002 Business Intelligence, Crime, Corruption and Debt in C&E Europe and the former Soviet Union  UPCOMING CONFERENCES THE ADAM SMITH INSTITUTE'S "RUSSIA'S ACCESSION TO THE WTO" To take place on 16-17 October 2002 at the Moscow Marriot Grand Hotel, Moscow, Russia. For further information, tel: +44 (0)20 7490 3774, fax: +44 (0)20 7505 0079, email: [email protected], W: www.asi-conferences.com EUROMONEY'S "REGIONAL FINANCE & INVESTMENT CONFERENCE FOR SOUTHEAST EUROPE" To take place on 29-30 October 2002 at the Hotel Croatia, Dubrovnik, Croatia. For further information, tel: +44 (0)20 7779 8821, email: [email protected], W: www.euromoneyconferences.com INTERNATIONAL PROFESSIONAL CONFERENCES' "MONEY LAUNDERING IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE" To take place on 6-7 November 2002 at Andel's Hotel, Prague, CzechRepublic. For further information, tel: +44 (0)20 7529 8906, fax: +44(0)7387 4647, email: [email protected], W: www.ipc-conferences.co.uk/prague BELARUS MORE THAN HALF OF BELARUSIANS WANT TO BE IN EU, ONE-THIRD IN RUSSIA According to a poll of a representative sample of 1,509 adults conductedearlier this month by the Independent Institute of Socioeconomic andPolitical Studies (NISEPI), 53.4 percent of respondents said they wouldsupport their country's accession to the European Union, Belapanreported on 26 September. Asked if they would vote for Russian PresidentVladimir Putin's proposal to make Belarus a part of the RussianFederation, 32.3 percent said "yes" and 26.3 percent answered "no."(RFE/RL 02.x.02) CROATIA CROATIAN NATIONAL BANK HNB ON FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT In its latest report the Croatian National Bank HNB said that foreigndirect investment in the first six months of the year totalled $577million, while the total FDI since 1993 reached $7.3 billion. During thefirst half of 2002, 69.05% of FDI has gone to buying stakes inDubrovacka Banka and Rijecka Banka. Other sectors benefiting from FDI sofar in 2002 have been hotels, 8.4%, Business consultancies, 5.5% andpharmaceuticals 5%. Austria has been the highest investor accounting for49.3%, followed by Italy 27.3%, Germany 11.5%, France 7.3% and theNetherlands 5%. (NewsBase 04.x.02) CZECH REPUBLIC KCP TO MONITOR ANALYST RECOMMENDATIONS The Securities Commission (KCP) has decided to monitor and analyze thepredictions and recommendations made by analysts of various companies.In the long term, the KCP will evaluate them and publish a league tableof their accuracy. The KCP will also use the database to investigatecases of suspected insider dealing and other misuses of businessinformation and malpractices. (PBJ 04.x.02) CR AN IDEAL LOCATION TO SITE RADAR & MISSILES AS PART OF U.S. MISSILEDEFENCE SHIELD The Czech Republic would be an ideal location to site radar and missilesas part of the US's missile defence shield, US defence and statedepartment security experts said during a briefing for journalists inWashington on Wednesday. However, the actual installation of suchequipment is years away, the experts said. Czech Defence MinisterJaroslav Tvrdik discussed the matter on his recent visit to the US. Thesystem is based on the original "Star Wars" missile defence dreamt upduring the Ronald Reagan presidency in the 1980s, which was plagued withtechnical problems. The system is intended to detect and destroymissiles during high-altitude flight, but tests have shown it is notvery reliable and some experts believe that if a number of missiles werefired at the same time, a number would evade the defence system. The USis offering participation in the system to allies in exchange forproviding sites or for participating in the development of the project.The system has brought strong criticism from Russia and China and someof the US's European allies are sceptical about the value of the system.While Tvrdik is known to favour the system, the general reaction inPrague's political circles is known to be cool to the idea. (NewsBase 04.x.02) ESTONIA TALLINN MUUGA TO BE SITE OF NEW TERMINAL The Estonian port of Tallinn Muuga will be the site of new terminal toexport coal from Russia's second largest coal producer Kuzbasrazrezugol,after the port promised to build the terminal faster than the Lithuanianport of Klaipeda, the local press reported. The facility is scheduledfor completion by January 1, 2005. The terminal will create about 100new jobs and is expected to export 5 million tons of coal a year. PortMarketing Director Erik Sakkov said that the agreement would help toreduce the port's dependence on oil shipping, which currently accountsfor 65% of its turnover. The terminal will create about 100 new jobs andis expected to export 5 million tons of coal a year. (NewsBase 04.x.02) HUNGARY OUTLOOK ROSY FOR EU ACCESSION The EU will take on 10 new members, including Hungary, within two years,EU Commissioner for enlargement Guenter Verheugen said in an interviewwith French daily Les Echos. Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Malta, Poland,Slovakia, Slovenia, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Cyprus will be readyto join the current 15 EU member states in 2004, while Turkey, Rumaniaand Bulgaria probably won't, he said. "The ten countries should enterthe union around the middle of 2004," Verheugen was quoted as saying.Verheugen also said new members should get compensation payments duringtheir first two years in the EU, according to the paper. (BBJ 04.x.02) LITHUANIA YUKOS MEETING IN VILNIUS The Yukos company has held an open board meeting of some 150 heads ofits subsidiaries and high-level managers in Vilnius devoted to itsinternational business projects, Lietuvos rytas reported. PresidentValdas Adamkus addressed the meeting and said that Lithuania is ready toco-operate with Yukos and that he hopes the company's activities will betransparent and profitable. Yukos Chairman Mikhail Khodorkovskii hadflown to Lithuania two days prior to the meeting and inspected the oilterminals at Butinge and Klaipeda. He also visited the Mazeikiai oilrefinery where he met with Prime Minister Algirdas Brazauskas.Khodorkovskii said that he expects Mazeikiai Nafta to become aprofitable company, which will play an important role in helping Yukosexpand its operations to the West. Yukos Vice President Mikhail Brudnopredicted that in the future Yukos will export about 45 million tons ofoil per year to Europe and the capacities of the refinery and the oilterminals will be used to full capacity. (NewsBase 02.x.02) POLAND PKN ORLEN CHIEF ACCEPTS ROTCH-LUKOIL INITIAL PRICE OFFER The head of PKN Orlen, Zbigniew Wróbel, has announced his willingness toinitially accept the price proposed by the Rotch-Lukoil consortium for a75% stake in the Gdańsk Refinery, despite the fact that Lukoil is nolonger an active participant in the deal. The two companies declared atthe beginning of September that they estimate the value of the stake at$274 million. On Wednesday, Treasury Minister Wiesław Kaczmarekannounced that other potential investors should not offer a price lowerthan that proposed by the British-Russian consortium. "We will acceptthe offer only if the research conducted in the company does not revealunfavorable facts," said Wróbel. PKN Orlen is currently awaiting theagreement of Nafta Polska in order to form a consortium with RotchEnergy, which recently decided to quit co-operation with Russia'sLukoil. (WBJ 04.x.02) ECONOMY BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF RECOVERY Rises in the sales of new cars, in industrial output for the thirdconsecutive month and in domestic demand in the second quarter, albeitof just 1%, are the first encouraging signs that Poland's economy mayhave turned the corner after its sharpest slowdown in a decade. Figuresshow that exports are growing, boosted by the drastic cost cuttingcarried out over the last two years and new investments by companieswere up 80% in the first half of the year. Poland's economy, a regionalstandard-setter in the 1990s, began slowing in 2000 amid unfavourableglobal trends and tight monetary policy, prompted by the central bank'sworries over fiscal loosening. This was accompanied by deep job cutslinked with industrial restructuring that sent unemployment soaring.Since 2000, interest rates have been cut sharply and confidence ineconomic policy making has improved following a change of government,although there are continued worries about the public deficit.Businesses are also now seeing recovery in export markets and thepositive effects of earlier cost cutting and restructuring. PrimeMinister Leszek Miller's government have seized on the encouraging news,which comes just before this month's local elections. Improved economicperformance is also crucial to the EU's judgement of Poland's fitness tojoin in 2004 as the largest of up to 10 new members. Seizing on thesigns of economic revival, the government has shifted the largely glumrhetoric of its first year in office to one of sunny optimism. "This isthe effect of the positive changes we made in the first year ofgovernment," Miller told Poles in a televised address last week.(NewsBase 03.x.02) RUSSIA YUSUFOV PUTS $2.5BLN PIPELINE ON THE TABLE The Russian government is considering whether to build a deepwater portin Murmansk that would allow large tankers to ship oil more affordablyto U.S. markets, Energy Minister Igor Yusufov said Wednesday. Such aport would help increase crude oil sales to the United States, which iseager to find suppliers outside the volatile Middle East. Russia willdecide in two to three years on whether to build the port, Yusufov toldreporters at an energy conference to promote U.S. investment in Russia'sgrowing oil industry. "This will give us markets to the West Coast ofthe United States," Yusufov said, referring to where the oil would bedelivered. The port project would probably cost $2.5 billion and needU.S. expertise and investment, he said. Most oil produced in Russia goesto nearby Europe. A deepwater port could accommodate so-calledsuper-tankers, which would cut shipment costs to the United States. Theconference attracted more than 70 energy companies in addition toYusufov, U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham and U.S. CommerceSecretary Donald Evans. Evans announced at the meeting that he will leada trade mission of U.S. energy firms to Russia next year to develop newpartnerships. "The future of our partnership lies in boardrooms and onfactory floors, not within the halls of government," he said. "It isessential for the United States and Russia to continue to explore newopportunities for our private sectors, as well as to take the stepsnecessary to ensure the long-term economic security of both our nationsand the global economy." (The Moscow Times 04.x.02) HARD CURRENCY REGULATION AND CONTROL At its session on October 17, the Russian government plans to consider anew version of the federal law, entitled On Hard Currency Regulation andControl, announced Arkady Dvorkovich, Russian deputy economicdevelopment and trade minister. The Finance Ministry, the Central Bankand the Economic Development and Trade Ministry (MERT) havepreliminarily agreed to lower the share of hard currency earnings thatRussian exporters are obliged to sell for rubles in Russia from 50% to35%. MERT is insisting that the law contain a schedule for a gradualdecrease in the share of hard currency earnings that exporters must sellin Russia. Dvorkovich said the government may adopt a separate federallaw on reducing the share to 35%, given that disagreements remainbetween ministries and departments on several key provisions of the newversion of the bill. Thus, MERT is insisting that the current permissiveprocedure on the movement of capital be repealed. The CBR, in turn,deems it wise to compile a list of operations involving the movement ofcapital across the Russian border, that would require prior CBRpermission rather than being simply subject to a notifying procedure.Dvorkovich believes that the latter issue is much more significant thanthe provision on changes in the mandatory sales of hard currencyrevenues. (NewsBase 04.x.02) PUTIN APPOINTS SIBERIAN GOVERNOR After the Krasnoyarsk Krai Election Commission refused on 2 October tocertify the 22 September gubernatorial elections and instead insisted on2 March 2003 as the date for new elections, Russian President VladimirPutin announced on 3 October that the current acting governor of thekrai, Nikolai Ashlapov, was resigning, leaving open the possibility forPutin to appoint someone to the post. Putin said that he was appointingAleksandr Khloponin, who had earlier been declared the winner of thatelection, as governor. Putin stated, that the "fact that AleksandrGennadyevich Khloponin received the most votes is not disputed byanyone, including the territorial electoral commission. What theargument is about is the way the election was held, and I believe thatthis argument has to be concluded, in the manner prescribed by law, bythe territorial or the Central Electoral Commission." A Krasnoyarsk Kraicourt had on 1 October rejected the commission's decision to cancel theelection, but the election commission remained defiant. The commission'schairman, Georgii Kotrykin, told Krasnoyarsk State Television on 30September that his office had been receiving congratulatory telegramsall day long. Voters in Krasnoyarsk were reportedly thanking him forbeing "so brave and resolute." (RFE/RL 04.x.02) MEDIA SPECULATE ABOUT KHLOPONIN'S BRIGHT FUTURE Moscow-based media have already been discussing whether Khloponin wouldrun for president in 2008, regions.ru noted on 27 September. VyacheslavNikonov, head of the Politika Foundation, told "Vedomosti" the previousday that he considers Khloponin "strong and dynamic," but much of hispolitical future will depend on his performance as governor. ValeriiFedorov, director of the Center for Political Situations, suggested that2008 is too soon, but 2012 is a realistic possibility. However, headded, it would be essential that Khloponin not become "tied up in theproblems of the krai." "Moskovskie novosti" on 24 September also raisedthe question of whether Khloponin would make a good presidentialcandidate in 2008. (RFE/RL 04.x.02) CYPRUS VISA DELAY Russians will probably be able to travel to Cyprus without visas untilfall next year, Prime-Tass reported Thursday. Cyprus had planned tointroduce visas for Russians from Jan. 1, but Cypriot Consul GeneralVassos Chamberlen said the introduction has been postponed due to a needto prepare the Moscow consulate for the visas, Prime-Tass said. Cyprusis introducing visas for Russians as part of its bid to join theEuropean Union in 2004. (The Moscow Times 04.x.02) U.S., RUSSIA AGREE ON JOINT ENERGY POLICIES In a joint statement following the conclusion of a U.S.-Russia energyforum in Houston, Texas, representatives of the two countries pledgedcooperation in boosting global energy security and stabilizing worldenergy prices, RTR and other Russian news agencies reported on 2October. Both countries will work to diversify oil supplies and tocreate a good investment climate for joint projects in Russia and inthird countries. The U.S. Export-Import Bank signed deals with LUKoil,Yukos, and Sibneft under which each company will receive a $100 millionloan to purchase U.S. drilling equipment, NTV reported. Rex Tillerson, asenior vice president at ExxonMobil, which is involved in a project todevelop oil fields near Russia's Sakhalin Island, said that -- with U.S.expertise -- Russia can double its oil production, polit.ru reported on3 October. (RFE/RL 03.x.02) GOVERNMENT TO ROOT OUT ILLEGAL MULTIMEDIA PRODUCTION Speaking at a government session devoted to the protection ofintellectual property, Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov said that 50percent of videocassettes, 65 percent of audiocassettes, and 95 percentof DVDs produced in Russia are made illegally, while the illegalmultimedia market is worth about $5 billion a year, RTR reported on 3October. He said it is remarkable that while in the past most unlicensedmultimedia products were imported into Russia, now they are produceddomestically. This booming black market is robbing the state ofsignificant tax revenues, Kasyanov noted. He urged the government toaddress the problem systematically by keeping better track of audio andvideo production, creating an efficient legislative framework forcopyright issues, and improving the coordination of government agenciesdealing with intellectual-property protection. (RFE/RL 03.x.02) KUKURA KIDNAP SUSPECT COMES FORWARD One of three suspects in the mysterious kidnapping of LUKoil chieffinancial officer Sergei Kukura came forward Wednesday, saying he hadnothing to do with the case and intended to meet with prosecutors toclear his name. But prosecutors charged Armenian businessman GagikBgdoyan with organizing a criminal group, TVS reported late Wednesday.On Tuesday, police identified Bgdoyan and Ukrainians AlexanderVetlugayev and Sergei Mechakovsky as the prime suspects in thekidnapping. Bgdoyan, who lives in Moscow, told NTV television that hehad never met Kukura. He said Vetlugayev had once worked for him as adriver. "I want to know why they are looking for me. I am a respectablecitizen," he said. NTV said Bgdoyan was in Armenia during the nearly twoweeks Kukura was in captivity and that he returned to Moscow after heheard he was wanted by police. Kukura was abducted Sept. 12 and released13 days later. The company said the kidnappers had demanded a ransom of$3 million and 3 million euros but released Kukura without collecting.(The Moscow Times 03.x.02) THIEVES CONDUCT THEIR OWN AUDIT Unidentified thieves broke into the Moscow apartment of the head of theState Audit Chamber Inspectorate, Aleksandr Ryabenko, and made off withcash and jewelry worth $120,000, RosBalt reported on 3 October. Ryabenkofiled a report with the police on 2 October saying that the robberyoccurred sometime between 30 September and 2 October. In his report,Ryabenko confirmed the value of the stolen property. (RFE/RL 03.x.02) SOME DETAILS EMERGE IN LUKOIL KIDNAPPING LUKoil First Vice President Sergei Kukura, who was kidnapped near Moscowon 12 September and released on 25 September (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 12and 26 September 2002), was kidnapped by a criminal group thatspecializes in abducting businessmen for ransom, the head of theInterior Ministry's Organized-Crime Department, Aleksandr Ovchinnikov,told journalists on 1 October, strana.ru and other Russian news agenciesreported. Ovchinnikov said the alleged leader of the group and two othermen are now wanted by Interpol. Ovchinnikov also said that no ransom waspaid, despite earlier media reports that the company paid $3 million and3 million euros. Ovchinnikov said that this amount was demanded, butthat the kidnappers apparently felt the police were closing in on themand so released their hostage, strana.ru reported. "Izvestiya," citingthe results of its own investigation and interviews with unidentifiedlaw-enforcement officials, alleged on 1 October that Kukura waskidnapped by members of the Moscow Oblast police and that most of thetime he was held in a village in Belarus. (RFE/RL 02.x.02) MVD GENERAL FOUND DEAD Interior Minister (MVD) Major General Nikolai Nino, who was director ofMoscow's TsSKA sports club, was found dead on 1 October in a hotel roomin Nizhnii Novgorod, RIA-Novosti and other Russian news agenciesreported on 2 October. According to RosBalt, Nino was scheduled todefend his dissertation at the Interior Ministry's Nizhnii NovgorodAcademy on 2 October on the subject of defending Russia's economicsecurity. Prior to his appointment to head TsSKA on 6 June, Nino headedthe Interior Ministry's economic-crime department. RosBalt reported thata note was found in Nino's hotel room that read, "It seems that I amincurably ill." There were no signs of violence, and the cause of deathhas not yet been determined. Local prosecutors have launched a criminalinvestigation. (RFE/RL 02.x.02) NEWSPAPER SECURITY CHIEF MURDERED IN PENZA The head of the security department for the newspaper "MK v Penze," partof the "Moskovskii komsomolets" group, was murdered on 21 September,Regnum reported on 23 September. Igor Salnikov was shot twice in thehead and chest by an unknown assailant as he returned to his home inPenza with his wife, who was not injured. According to the report,Salnikov's was the fourth media-related murder in the city since lastJuly. (RFE/RL 23.ix.02) UKRAINE PRESIDENT REFUSES TO STEP DOWN Leonid Kuchma addressed the nation on the ICTV television channel on 28September and accused the opposition of resorting to violence to unseathim. "It is one thing to express one's dissatisfaction but another thingto [try to] force a violent change of the power and social system," thepresident said. Kuchma called for an end to opposition protests, sayingthat previous demonstrations have damaged Ukraine's image and stallsocial progress. "[Opposition leaders] must think about whether todischarge the responsibilities for which they were elected by some 50million citizens during the elections, or to execute the demands ofclose to 50,000 people who participated in nationwide demonstrations,"he noted, adding that "I refuse categorically to resign...because I waselected by the people as the head of state and I feel fully responsiblefor all that happens in the country." Kuchma did not mention theallegations that Ukraine may have illegally sold a Kolchuga radar systemto Iraq. (RFE/RL 30.ix.02) INFORMATION PROVIDERS NEWSBASE NewsBase is a leading provider of business and economic news and intelligence from Russia, Central Europe and the FSU. Daily bulletins and industry specific weekly reports backed by an archive containing over 10 million words combine to provide a comprehensive service to a global blue chip client base. Contact: Jon Laurijssen T: +44 (0)131 478 8537 F: +44 (0)131 478 7001 E: [email protected] W: www.newsbase.com, www.newsbaseworldmonitoring.com NEW WORLD PUBLISHING New World Publishing is a primary source of business-related information for Central Europe, through its publications the Prague, Budapest and Warsaw Business Journals. Contact: Mark Child T: +420 2 4608 6524 F: +420 2 4608 6501 E: [email protected] W: www.ceebiz.com, www.pbj.cz, www.wbj.pl, www.bbj.hu THE MOSCOW TIMES The Moscow Times offers readers an independent and precise view of the political, economic and business life of Russia. Contact: Andrew Boag T: +7 095 232 3200 F: +7 095 232 1761 E: [email protected] W: www.themoscowtimes.com RADIO FREE EUROPE / RADIO LIBERTY Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty is a private, international communications service to Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe; the Caucasus; and Central and Southwestern Asia funded by the U.S. Congress through the Broadcasting Board of Governors. Contact: Peter Baumgartner T: +420 (0)2 2112 2039 F: +420 (0)2 2112 2012 E: [email protected] W: www.rferl.org TEMPLETON THORP T +44 (0)20 7520 9380 F +44 (0)20 7504 8180 E [email protected] W www.templetonthorp.com |
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